Wet Unsettled Weather Pattern Likely Through Next Week

Taking a look at rainfall projections for the mid-week storm expected to affect our weather Tuesday night into Thursday, projections are holding steady between ½” and 1” likely for the coastal and valley areas, with 1”-3” of rain likely in the foothills and mountains.  As for snowfall, elevations above 5500 ft could see 6-12+ inches of new snow.  Check the latest QPF map above for estimates as of 10 pm Monday night.

There’s high confidence that the area will experience widespread rain, but the finer details are still a bit fuzzy, as forecast models struggle with systems originating from the west rather than the north.  It appears we’re dealing with two slugs of storm energy with a decent break in between the two, most likely late Wednesday into early Thursday.  

It’s quite probable that the more significant impacts will arrive with the second round of energy, as the colder airmass arrives and further destabilizes the atmosphere.  This will be the window for possible thunderstorms, bringing heavier pockets of rain.  The potential even exists for a few stronger thunderstorms or even an isolated tornado should the core of the low track near Ventura County.  

In the mountains, snow levels will start off near 7000 ft, and drop rapidly to 3000-4500 ft Wednesday night into Thursday.  This would impact the mountain travel corridors – the I-5 and CA-33.  If you plan to travel thouse routes this week, pay close attention to the forecast and plan for delays.  

Gusty northwest to north winds are likely behind the storm on Thursday possibly lingering into Friday.  Additionally, the cold airmiass that settles in behind the front will lead to some very chilly overnight temperatures Thursday night and Friday night.

Taking a look at the long range forecast, it appears the unsettled weather pattern is likely to continue, at least for the next 10 days.  Another round of wet weather sometime early next week, and yet another possible for the latter half of next week.  Stay tunes for further updates, and remember the latest forecast is always available at CamWX.com.