The radar is lit up like a Christmas tree as a cold front makes it’s way slowly down the coast. Rain ahead of the front is spreading through Santa Barbara County and should start to affect Ventura County later this morning. As the front passes, expect several hours of light to moderate rainfall, then the steady rain will taper to scattered showers this afternoon. Rainfall rates will remain under ¼”/hr, so there is no threat to the recent burn areas with this first wave. The northerly flow pattern may even put the Ventura County coast into a rain shadow, limiting rainfall amounts there.
After the front moves through, scattered showers will decrease in coverage through this evening, where we should see a decent break from the rain. Only the slimmest chance of a passing shower remains overnight.
Tomorrow, several post-frontal slugs of storm energy sweep the region. All the cold air associated with the low combined with the passing disturbances will destabilize the atmosphere leading to a showery pattern, with the chance for some stronger cells and possible thunderstorms. Local rainfall rates could approach ½”/hr in thunderstorms or convective showers, so residents near the burn areas will want to stay on their guard tomorrow. As the 2nd wave passes, strong gusty winds may develop behind it Thursday afternoon.
Snow levels will start off near 7000 ft, and then quickly drop down to 4000 ft overnight and 3500 ft Thursday. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the mountains, with snowfall totals approaching 6” above 6000 ft. Just 2” of snow possible for the Grapevine, but NWS Forecasters say there’s a greater chance of just snow in the air with less than 1” total accumulation.
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