What is shaping up to be the most robust storm of the season is finally here. The cold low pressure sits over the eastern Pacific and will move over the region through Thursday. The cold frontal band sits just off the California coast, interactive with a fetch of subtropical moisture to the south. Forecasters expect widespread rain to develop ahead of the cold front today, then a period of heavier rain overnight with a chance for thunderstorm development as the front itself moves through. Latest model solutions have sped the storm up a bit, and while this will work to bring rainfall totals down a tick, rainfall rates remain concerning. After the front passes, steady rain will give way to scattered showers and thunderstorms, with any stronger cells still capable of brief heavy rain.
A Flood Watch will go into effect at 6 p.m. this evening. Residents in the burn zone should already be prepared for flash flooding and mud/debris flows. Per VCEmergency, Ventura County public safety personnel are closely monitoring the forecast surrounding the Mountain Fire Burn Area where most weather models are showing rainfall rates below the USGS debris flow threshold of 0.60 inches/hour. No evacuation warnings or orders have been issued as of 9 a.m., however, residents should remain alert and monitor VCEmergency.com or the VC Alert system for updated information. Outside the burn areas, localized urban flooding is possible in low-lying and poor drainage areas.
Winds are expected to pick up behind the front as well, with winds gusting to 40 mph here in Camarillo on Thursday into Thursday evening.
Snow levels will start off high, but are expected to crash down to between 2500 and 3500 ft. This would heavily impact the I-5 corridor and CA-33 through Pine Mountain Summit. A Winter Storm Warning is in place, with 1-2 feet of snow possible above 6500ft, 6-12 inches of snow possible between 5500 and 7000 ft, 1-5 inches possible between 4000 and 5500 ft, and up to an inch as low as 3000 ft. Gusty winds will reduce visibility as well. Travel through the mountains is highly discouraged this afternoon and through the overnight hours.
Another weak storm system will move into the region between Friday and Saturday, bringing another chance of light rainfall across the area. We’ll get a few dry days on Saturday and Sunday as high pressure builds in briefly. Yet another storm system will move into the region early next week, though it appears this storm will be focused more to the north, with a chance it misses Ventura County entirely.
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