What looks to be the most pleasant day of the year so far is shaping up here in Ventura County today. High pressure aloft and weak offshore flow remain in place, teaming up to push highs into the 70s today (mid to upper 60s near the beaches). A weak eddy circulation could have caused some low clouds to form along the immediate coast, but a quick glance out the window as the sun rises shows crystal-clear skies.
A few more storms line up to take a few late-season swipes at Southern California this week. The first arrives late Monday; however, it’s aiming for a southern trajectory and more likely than not will miss us. The daytime should actually be pleasant, with a few clouds building as the low approaches. The northern end of the low will brush the area Monday night, bringing a chance of rain, but better odds are that the rain will remain completely south of the area. The system’s cloud shield is expected to make Tuesday a mostly cloudy and cooler day.
Wednesday and Thursday are expected to be CamWX ALERT days. A much more potent system is poised to sweep the region, this one with a better moisture tap, better dynamics, and a much colder airmass. The cold air will make for a healthy environment for thunderstorm development, which would bring enhanced rainfall, among other hazards. The rainfall forecast with this second storm is holding steady at 1”-2” for the coast and valleys, 2”-4” for the foothills and mountains. If the current forecast verifies, this storm is highly likely to create issues in the recent burn areas. Impacted residents should be preparing for heavy rain and heed the advice of local officials. Above the snowline, which is likely to drop down near 3000 ft Thursday, a few inches of snow is possible. 1-2 feet of snow is likely at higher elevations.
Behind the front, a chilly airmass will settle in place. Highs will fall into the upper 50s Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, with lows dipping down into the 30s Thursday night.
A few post-frontal impulses may bring additional rainfall next weekend; however, long-range models are not in the greatest agreement, so we’ll punt on trying to solve that forecast.
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