Alright folks, let’s have a look at the rest of this week. Forecast models’ guidance has been trending wetter with both tonight’s storm and the more potent Wed-Thu storm as well.
We have a weak system that will pass mostly to the south tonight; however, we’ll likely catch a little bit of the northern end of it as it passes by. We’re not expecting much rain at all – I’d estimate likely under one-tenth of an inch with a chance for up to one-quarter-inch of rain between Monday evening and Tuesday afternoon. Rainfall intensity is expected to be light, and no issues are expected in the burn areas for storm #1.
Storm #2 will be hot on the heels of storm #1, and frankly, there won’t be much of a break, as models are starting to indicate a longer period of warm air advection and frontal rain, with mainly light to moderate rates, accumulating over many hours. This may exacerbate any flooding issues when the main band of heavier rain pushes through the area late Wednesday night / early Thursday morning. The main band itself is also trending a bit heavier, with peak rainfall rates between 0.3”/hr to 0.5”/hr, possibly approaching 0.75”/hr in the heaviest bands. Based on this guidance, the National Weather Service may be issuing Flash Flood Watches for the higher-risk burn areas this afternoon, effective for the Wed night-Thu morning period. (12:33 PM Update – Flash Flood Watch issued for ALL coastal and valley areas including, but not limited to recent burn zones) Rainfall totals for storm #2 are holding at 1”-2” for the coasts & valleys and 2”-4” for the foothills and mountains; however, that might increase a bit with the afternoon forecast package. Look for an update on that with tomorrow’s FLF.
Wednesday and Thursday will be CamWX Alert days. Residents living in or near the Mountain fire burn zone should be preparing for heavy rain and possible mud/debris flows. If you require sandbags, VCFD has sandbag filling stations at 24 different fire stations around the county. Visit the VCFD website for information. In the days and hours leading up to the storm, local officials will provide specific information regarding the event. Check VCEmergency.com and the VCAlert system frequently. Evacuations may be issued, and if an evacuation ORDER is issued for your area, you should leave. In any case, heed the instructions of the Sheriff’s Department. During the heavy rains, stay alert and heed the instructions of local officials. During the storm, if you observe mud or debris flows or a Flash Flood Warning is issued, seek higher ground or shelter in place on an upper floor of your home. Do NOT attempt to drive on flooded roadways.
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