We have an active radar this morning. The center of storm #1 is currently west of San Diego and moving ESE. A lobe of energy wrapping around the low is spinning through the Santa Barbara/Ventura/Los Angeles County area. The rain coverage is very non-uniform, and the rain today should come and go, decreasing in coverage through this afternoon. Rainfall totals today shouldn’t be all that impressive – the official forecast calls for up to ¼” but based on what I’m seeing on the radar, I expect amounts well under one-tenth of an inch. I expect a break in the rain this afternoon through early tomorrow morning between this and storm #2, which begins to impact the area Wednesday morning.
Storm #2 continues to impress on the forecast models. A warm front develops Wednesday morning and brings light amounts of rain through the evening hours. Overnight into Thursday morning is the period of greatest concern, as the cold front sweeps through the area bringing heavy rain, strong winds, and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Peak rainfall rates of 0.5”/hr to .75”/hr look likely as the front passes, which would be trouble for the recent burn areas. Isolated 1”/hr rates are possible with any thunderstorms. Total rainfall estimates continue to hold steady at 1”-2” for the coastal and valley areas and 2”-4” for the foothills and mountains. A few outlier forecast models show a stronger jet associated with the front, which would increase rainfall amounts. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect Wednesday evening through Thursday evening. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect Wednesday through Friday for heavy snow in the mountains.
Needless to say, there is much concern for the burn areas with this second storm. Residents should prepare for heavy rain and possible mud and debris flows in the burn areas. The Flood Watch is not limited to the burn areas, and folks everywhere should be alert to possible flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.
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