National Weather Service Area Forecast Discussion
901
FXUS66 KLOX 030506
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1006 PM PDT Thu May 2 2024
.SYNOPSIS...02/145 PM.
Dry weather will continue through Saturday morning. Increasing
onshore flow as well as greater coverage of night and morning low
clouds and fog will bring cooler temperatures to all areas Friday
through Sunday. An unseasonably cold storm system will brush the
area to the north this weekend with a chance for light
precipitation later Saturday into Sunday. A warming and drying
trend will develop next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)...02/1005 PM.
***UPDATE***
Temperatures ranged from the warm 80s in the desert and interior
valleys, to cooler 70s and 60s for the coastal plains and near the
coasts. Marine layer clouds were limited to the coasts and
coastal valleys south of Point Conception today, and kept
temperatures cooler in these areas.
Tonight, marine layer clouds are returning to LA County from the
coast to the coastal slopes and to portions of the Central Coast.
Sub-advisory level sundowner winds along western portions of the
Santa Barbara south coast will likely limit clouds in this area.
Looking into Friday, the overall pattern remains nearly the same
with little change in heights. Therefore, expecting similar highs
as today.
The forecast looks on track, with minor changes increasing marine
layer clouds at the coasts. In addition, temperatures were cooled
for portions of the LA and Ventura County coasts where marine
layer clouds are expected. Sundowner winds look sub-advisory
tonight and tomorrow night, however increased wind gusts for the
Santa Barbara south coast/Santa Ynez range to 35-45 mph for
Saturday night.
***From Previous Discussion***
Going forward, the trends are decidedly cooler through the weekend
as another late system upper low moves into northern California
Saturday. Models have come to a good consensus on the track,
moving it inland north of the Bay area before sliding south along
the eastern Sierra Sunday. This track, though still mostly inland,
has enough southerly over-water trajectory to create some light
rain (around a quarter inch) across the Central Coast later
Saturday into Sunday. Less certainty on the southern extent of
rain but ensembles indicate just very light precip amounts (under
a tenth of an inch) south of Pt Conception. In the meantime,
expect to see increasing marine layer stratus Friday and
especially Saturday with cooler temperatures.
Increasing onshore flow will lead to increasing west to southwest,
especially Saturday afternoon across the mountains and deserts.
May need some low end wind advisories for those areas.
.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...02/217 PM.
The upper low will exit the area by Sunday night leading to
warming temperatures Monday (3-6 degrees). Onshore flow will be
much weaker and forecast gradients indicate the potential for
some breezy north winds in the mountains and across southern Santa
Barbara County early next week. After the warm up on Monday
temperatures are expected to stay pretty steady next week with
just minor day to day variations. Will likely have some marine
layer clouds returning to coastal areas by mid week. Otherwise it
looks like a fairly mundane weather pattern next week with very
minimal impacts.
&&
.AVIATION...03/0316Z.
At 2327Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2000 ft deep with an
inversion top at 4900 ft and a temperature of 16 C.
High confidence in desert TAFs moderate confidence elsewhere.
Timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 2 hours. There is
a 20% chance of LIFR conditions at KSMX and KSBA. There is a 20%
chance for brief cigs at KPRB.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight cat changes
could be off by +/- 2 hours. Cigs could arrive as low as BKN008
and will lift through the period. An east wind component of
around 5 kt is possible 09Z-15Z Fri, but will likely remain below
10 kt.
KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Timing of flight cat
changes could be off by +/- 2 hours, with a 30% chance of cigs
will arrive as early as 07Z tonight.
&&
.MARINE...02/919 PM.
In the outer waters, Gale Force winds are expected to drop of late
Thursday night, followed by a long period of intermittent Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) winds. Gales are possible for the waters
north of Point Conception (40% chance) late Fri afternoon thru
late Fri night. Winds and will subside somewhat Sat morning,
possibly even below SCA level. Then SCA level winds are expected
much of the time Sat evening thru Tue, with a 40% chance of Gales
Sun and Mon afternoon/evening.
In the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, SCA level winds and seas will
continue thru late tonight. Then, SCA level winds are likely
during the afternoon/eve hours Fri and Sun through Tue (60-70%
chance), with a 40-50% chance Sat afternoon/night.
In the SBA Channel, SCA level winds are likely in extreme western
portions of the channel through late night hours and again Fri
afternoon into night (50% chance). SCA winds likely for most of
the channel Sat afternoon thru late Sunday night. There is a 50%
chance of gales Sun afternoon/eve.
In the southern inner waters, there is a 20% chance of SCA level
winds in NW portions (from Anacapa Island to Malibu) during the
late afternoon/eve hours Fri. SCA level winds are likely during
the late afternoon thru late evening hours Sat thru Sun,
especially in western portions, then there is a 40% chance Mon.
There is a 30% chance of gales Sun afternoon/evening.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for
zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones
670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Phillips/MW
AVIATION...Phillips
MARINE...Lund/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...MW
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox
NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion
