National Weather Service Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS66 KLOX 280600
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1100 PM PDT Sat Apr 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...27/139 PM.
Some coastal low clouds and fog will be possible each night and
morning through late next week, otherwise mostly clear skies with
warmer temperatures can be expected during the period. Gusty west
to north winds will prevail over the mountains and deserts at
least through Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...27/714 PM.
Satellite imagery showing mostly clear skies across the forecast
area this evening, except patches of low clouds forming across
the Central Coast. At upper levels, a northwest flow pattern will
persist through Tuesday. This in combination with northerly
offshore pressure gradients near the surface will continue
to bring gusty northwest to north winds across portions of the
forecast area through at least Monday. The Santa Barbara-Santa
Maria gradient has climbed to -3.9 mb this evening. A wind
advisory is in effect until 3 pm Monday for the mountains,
Antelope Valley and adjacent foothills, as well as southwest Santa
Barbara county. These areas should generally see wind gusts up to
45 mph, except locally up to 55 mph across the I-5 corridor and
western Antelope Valley foothills.
The persistent strong northwest flow pattern across the outer
coastal waters will continue to generate a weak eddy circulation
the next few nights. As a result, there is the potential for
low clouds to develop during the late night and morning hours
across the LA/Ventura county coastal areas. Latest ACARS data
still showing a very weak to no inversion across the LA Basin, so
may be difficult for an organized stratus field to develop
overnight.
Weak upper level ridging will move into srn CA tonight and Sun,
bringing a warming and drying trend away from the coast.
Little change in heights then expected Monday into Tuesday,
resulting in little change in temperatures. Warmest valley
areas could climb into the lower 80s the next few days.
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...27/138 PM.
The EC and GFS mean ensembles and deterministic are in generally
good agreement thru the extended period, altho by next Sat the
GFS has a deeper upper level trof along the W coast compared to
the EC.
Weak upper level troffiness is expected over the forecast area on
Wed into Thu, then weak upper level ridging should move into the
area Fri followed by a flat upper level ridge (EC ) or an upper
level trof (GFS) on Sat. Overall, the weather should not be
affected much by either scenario on Sat except a deeper marine
layer and cooler temps than currently forecast.
Overall, it looks like night and morning low clouds and fog will
affect the L.A. County coast Wed thru Fri, then should expand to
the Central Coast and VTU County coast for Fri night into Sat
morning. Otherwise, mostly clear skies will continue across the
region. Daytime temps will continue to be near normal to several
degrees above normal Wed thru Fri, then cool to a few degrees
below normal for most areas on Sat.
&&
.AVIATION...28/0559Z.
At 0500Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 900 ft deep. The top of the
of marine layer was 1600 ft with a temp of 16 C.
High confidence in TAFs except for KSMO where there is a 30
percent chc of IFR cigs 11Z-17Z and KLAX and KLGB where there is a
30 percent chc of no cigs.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chance
of no cigs. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR...High confidence in TAF.
&&
.MARINE...27/827 PM.
With increasing confidence, have issued an extended period of
Gale Warnings for the outer waters through Monday night, where
peak gusts of 35 to 40 knots are expected. There is a 40-60%
chance of gales will persist into Tue night, especially zones
673/676. Strongest winds expected each afternoon/evening. SCA
winds are expected through Thu.
In the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, SCA level winds are likely
especially during the afternoon/eve hours thru Tue night. Seas
are expected to be near SCA levels during the periods of weaker
winds. There is a 25% chance of gale force winds during the
afternoon/eve hours Sun and Mon.
In the inner waters S Pt.Conception, a persistent eddy circulation
will likely keep much of the inner waters below SCA level winds.
However, western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel are
expected to see at least SCA level winds during the
afternoon/evening hours through Tuesday, with a 50 percent chance
of Gale force winds late Sunday afternoon/evening. Due to the
lower confidence, keeping the Gale Watch in effect for the western
Santa Barbara Channel during that time period.
Widespread strong to gale force winds will keep dangerous sea
conditions across much of the coastal waters (particularly the
outer waters) thru the weekend, with short-period, steep, and
choppy waves. There may be dangerous breaking waves near west-
facing harbors. Mariners should remain in safe harbor until
conditions improve.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for
zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Monday for zones
376-377-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory now in effect until 3 PM PDT Monday for zones
378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for
zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through late
Sunday night for zones 650-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Sunday for zone
670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones
673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through late
Monday night for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Gomberg/Sirard
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Gomberg/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...Sirard
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox
NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion
